Savings and payback

Savings calculator at 7% rate inflation

See your complete year-by-year savings table at 7% annual rate inflation, an aggressive-growth scenario, plus your break-even year and return multiple if you add a system cost.

Current status: the 30% federal residential solar tax credit (Section 25D) expired for systems placed in service after December 31, 2025. If you're buying with cash or a loan in 2026 or later, use your full system price with no credit subtracted. Only subtract 30% if your system was placed in service by the end of 2025.

Your numbers

1 Starting savings and cost
Use the result from the solar savings calculator if needed.
Add this to also see your break-even year and total return multiple at 7% growth. 0% federal credit is the accurate default for a new purchase in 2026 or later; use 30% off only if your system was placed in service by 12/31/2025.

How it works

One table, an optional full analysis

Step 1

Enter your year one savings

Use the result from the solar savings calculator as your starting point.

Step 2

Get every year at 7%, instantly

This locks in an aggressive-growth scenario and shows every year from 1 through 25. Compare against the 5% scenario to see how much steeper this assumption runs.

Step 3

Add your system cost for break-even and return

Optionally enter your net system cost to also see the exact year you break even at 7% growth, plus your total return as a multiple of what you paid, turning the savings table into a fuller mini financial analysis. Utility rates drive the whole savings calculation, and the US Energy Information Administration's electricity data track them state by state.

Understanding the 7% scenario

How break-even shifts at this growth rate

For a $22,000 net cost system, break-even at 7% growth lands around 9.1 years, compared to 9.8 years at the 5% scenario and 10.6 years at the 3% scenario. The gap between scenarios is smaller for break-even than for the full 25 year total, since most of the acceleration from higher rates compounds in later years, well after the break-even point has already passed. The US Department of Energy's homeowner's guide to going solar walks through the same decision step by step.

What the total return looks like

For the same $22,000 system, the 25 year total comes to about $113,848, a 5.2x return multiple, meaning cumulative savings run about five times the original cost. That compares to a 3.9x multiple at the 5% scenario and a 3.0x multiple at 3%, showing how much the assumption compounds the total picture even when break-even timing barely moves. To size the array behind this number, the system size by annual kwh usage turns your usage into a kilowatt target.

How aggressive is a 7% assumption

It's a genuine upside case, well above the 2 to 3% historical US average. Use it to understand the top end of your potential range rather than as a baseline expectation, particularly if you're in a region with a documented recent history of steep rate hikes.

Comparing all the scenarios at once

The rate increase sensitivity calculator shows this scenario alongside four others side by side, useful for understanding your full range rather than committing to any single assumption. Output varies by roof and weather, and the real world vs nameplate output gap calculator shows what your site should produce in a typical year.

Questions

Frequently asked

For a $22,000 net cost system, break-even at 7% growth lands around 9.1 years, compared to 9.8 years at 5% and 10.6 years at 3%. The gap between scenarios is smaller for break-even than for the total 25 year figure, since most of the acceleration happens in later years.

For the same $22,000 system, the 25 year total comes to about $113,848, a 5.2x return multiple, meaning your cumulative savings run about five times what you originally paid, before accounting for any panel degradation.

It's an aggressive upside case, well above the 2 to 3% historical US average. Use it to understand the top end of your potential range rather than as a baseline expectation, particularly if you're in a region with a documented recent history of steep rate hikes.

Adding system cost turns a savings table into a fuller mini financial analysis, showing break-even timing and total return alongside the raw savings figures, all specific to this particular rate scenario.

Related tools

Keep exploring rate scenarios

Savings at 3% rate inflation Savings at 5% rate inflation Rate increase sensitivity Rate inflation projection tool Break even timeline estimator Year by year savings breakdown Lifetime savings, 25 year All savings and payback tools